The NFL offered some coin toss games in Week 12, and with that, there were certainly ups and downs in the game selections and predictions against the spread. Week 13 offers a few additional challenges among the 14 races.
There are stronger favorites this week, some of which are covered by double-digit spreads. There are also an unusual number of field goal differences (3 points), which is in line with home field benefits
Here’s how Sporting News navigated the latest issues in the second end of the season’s fearless forecast for professional football:
(Game Odds courtesy of FanDuel)
NFL POWER FRANCE:
Patriots, 49ers, Buccaneers rise when Rams, Steelers drop to week 13
The NFL chooses to spread for week 13
Monday 8:15 PM ET, ESPN
Mac Jones faces his toughest test to date as a beginner QB in a hostile environment, on the road, in elements and number one against malicious defense. The Patriots also have a formidable defense that includes the great games of their counterpart Josh Allen. This is a bit of a grinding game for both sides with limited busy success, so Allen’s unique double-gamble makes a difference in a game that stays tight and pretty ugly in the deep fourth quarter.
Care about: Bills wins 23-19 and covers the difference.
Thursday 20.20 ET, Fox, NFL Network and Amazon Prime Video
The Cowboys and Saints both have a regular week playing on Thursday when both teams lost at home on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys set off without coach Mike McCarthy, but they should get wide receivers Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb back to reinforce Dak Prescott. The Saints may receive positive offensive health news thanks to their defenders and line of attack so they have a better chance at home when Taysom Hill starts. Dallas has still been a better team at home than on the road, but now it’s a little harder to win games.
Care about: The Cowboys win 27-23, but are unable to cover the difference.
Sunday 4:05 PM ET, Fox
The Rams can’t lose four consecutive matches with this type of talented team led by Sean McVay, can they? Assuming Matthew Stafford can stop his six-point pipe, LA sits beautifully in a much-needed home game. Former Jaguar Jalen Ramsey haunts the broadcast with Trevor Lawrence, who also has plenty of Aaron Donald and Von Miller on his face. This is an opportunity for Rams to hit the team with Darrell Henderson and the running game and be less dependent on Defford’s deep feed.
Care about: The Rams win 31-10 and cover the spread.
- Shock of the week: Washington Football Team (+2.5, 49.5 o / u) from the Raiders
Sunday 4:05 PM ET, Fox
Washington has unveiled the offensive talent that made it beat the NFC East as under 500 last season. The defense has supported some fundamental problems, although Ron Rivera and Jack Del Rio lacked some key pieces. Las Vegas is about to achieve a massive road win in Dallas, but just when the team looks most impressive is when it starts to crash because there is inconsistency everywhere.
Care about: Washington wins 27-20.
Sunday at 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Vikings appear to be locked in a one-ball game each week, and an eight-point defeat margin in San Francisco was an explosion for them. Minnesota aims to be without runner Dalvin Cook, and its own nimble running defense suddenly allows heavy Detroit to stay in the second low-scoring game. The much more dynamic reception forces of Kirk Cousins and Vikings are late for the difference.
Care about: The Vikings win 23-17 but are unable to cover the difference.
Sunday at 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Cardinals ’offensive game should look closer to explosive and balanced at best when Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins return. The greeting was well timed to rest for a stretch run aimed at the top of the NFC playlffs. The Cardinals should also not forget how the Bears stole their last wild card last season. The bears have a limited skill of firepower relative to them and also have too many defensive holes.
Care about: The Cardinals win 27-17 and cover the difference.
- Buccaneers (-10.5, 50.5 o / u) in the Falcons
Sunday at 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Buccaneers are renewing their offensive identity at the right time and placing much more emphasis on running and short passing games. This has been key when they are missing an element of the big game without Antonio Brown and have still wanted to limit the visibility of their struggling passing defense. Find them to ground and hit this home as Brady picks up a weak secondary indoors. Matt Ryan will be forced into much of the second half in an attempt to catch a one-dimensional attack.
Care about: The Buccaneers win 34-20 and cover the spread.
- Colts (-8.5, 46.5 o / u) in Texans
Sunday at 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Colts were supposed to become a pass-happy team to try to stay with the Buccaneers last week, but it may feel good to go back to a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor and the running game because Houston’s defensive front can’t stop him. Indianapolis dominates both lines of battle to get back over. 500 and forced more key exchanges against Tyrod Taylor.
Care about: The Colts win 24-10 and cover the spread.
- Eagles (-7, 45.5 o / u) in the Jets
Sunday at 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Eagles forced the problem a little more into the feed game last week with poor results as Jalen Hurts struggled with abductions and nailed connections to his recipients and tight-lipped Dallas Goedert. They return to their running hobbies as Hurts and Boston Scott lead the change with Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard injured. Their defense can hardly frustrate Zach Wilson, but the zone opens up enough games for the Jets to stay close. This second consecutive trip to MetLife Stadium works much better.
Care about: The Eagles win 20-14 but are unable to cover the difference.
Sunday at 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Chargers ’running defensive problems once again raise their ugly heads as the Bengals shifted their attack more into Joe Mixon’s hands and the running game began to turn around. As a result, Joe Burrow feels comfortable on the field. Justin Herbert, his counterpart’s young gun from the first round of 2020, will face more passing, even though he doesn’t rely much on the powerlifting game.
Care about: The Bengals win 31-27 and cover the difference.
Sunday 1 ET, Fox
The Giants defeated Eagles Will’s entire defense and nearly zero attack at home last week. Dolphins drives a four-game winning streak and finds their offensive pop in Tua Tagovailo, thanks to rookie broadcaster Jaylen Waddle breaking in and Myles Gaskin looking much better in the backfield. Miami’s strong intermediate pass and more active game defense against Daniel Jones will once again bring a steady win.
Care about: The Dolphins win 20-16 and cover the spread.
- Ravens (-3, 44 o / u) in the Steelers
Sunday 4:25 PM ET, CBS
The Ravens don’t get a lot of style points lately as Lamar Jackson has produced bad passes in bigger rounds. But they are still winning enough to be number one in the AFC, and the Steelers’ rotten defense is relieving pressure on Jackson. The Steelers keep it close with their fast picks and Najee Harris on their hard run, but the Ravens grind the second away as Justin Tucker kicks the game winner home.
Care about: The Ravens win 23-20.
- 49ers (-2.5, 46.5 o / u) in the Seahawks
on Sunday 16:25 ET, CBS
The 49ers are in a full offensive career and will continue without Deebo Samuel, still with Elijah Mitchell, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk. They carry out a transmission attack and get big games everywhere in the feed game. Seahawks ’defense has few responses to this diversity and versatility. Russell Wilson and his vast receivers keep them in the game, but that’s it.
Care about: The 49ers win 27-24 and cover the difference.
- Broncos at Chiefs (-9.5, 47.5 o / u)
Sunday at 8:20 PM ET, NBC
The Broncos rose from the rug with a strong defensive performance against Chargers, which should have pleased Vic Fangio. They should get more out of their feed game here as Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams give them a more reliable rush production. Teddy Bridgewater won’t beat Patrick Mahomes in any way, as Kansas City will serve as the more complete AFC West team at home.
Care about: The Chiefs win 31-23, but are unable to cover the difference.
Vinnie Iyer’s 2021 Choices:
- Week 12 record against spread: 9-6
- Week 12 record straight: 12-3
- Season ATS: 98-80
- Season live: 118-61
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